THE QUANTUM COMPUTING REALITY CHECK: Why Supply Chain 'Breakthroughs' Are Still Decades Away

-IN TODAY’S EDITION-

Quantum computers use quantum bits (qubits) that can be in multiple states at once, theoretically solving complex problems faster than regular computers. 

For supply chains, this means better route optimization, demand forecasting, and inventory management. That's the theory anyway.

5 reality checks on quantum supply chain promises:

• THE MCKINSEY MIRAGE
  Why that 10% cost savings projection is pure marketing

• THE PROOF OF CONCEPT TRAP
  Academic papers vs actual warehouse operations

• THE CLASSICAL ADVANTAGE
  Why your current optimization tools still win

• THE HARDWARE PROBLEM
  Technical barriers nobody talks about

• THE TIMING REALITY
  When quantum might actually matter (spoiler: not soon)

-THE MCKINSEY MIRAGE-

McKinsey's report says quantum could deliver "up to 10% cost savings" in supply chain optimization. That phrase "up to" is doing serious work.

I've looked at the actual quantum implementations. The ones that work use tiny datasets with perfect conditions.

No missing data.
No system integration headaches.
No real-world chaos.

Try running quantum optimization on actual supply chain data and watch it fall apart.

Your inventory management system has gaps. 

Your demand forecasting deals with seasonality, promotions, and supply disruptions. 

Your route optimization handles driver schedules, vehicle maintenance, and customer preferences.

Quantum algorithms aren't built for messy reality. They're built for clean academic problems.

Classical optimization algorithms have been dealing with this mess for decades.

They're battle-tested.
They integrate with your existing systems.
They work when your data is imperfect.

The quantum savings McKinsey talks about? 

You can likely get similar results today by upgrading your classical algorithms and cleaning your data. No quantum computer required.

-THE PROOF OF CONCEPT TRAP-

Academic quantum papers love the Vehicle Routing Problem. It's quantum computing's favorite demo. 

Research teams regularly publish papers showing quantum algorithms solving routing problems faster than classical ones.

Here's what these papers don't include:

• Driver union contracts

• Vehicle weight limits

• Customer delivery windows

• Traffic patterns

• Fuel costs

• Maintenance schedules

• Regulatory compliance

I led a project where we tested a "breakthrough" quantum routing algorithm against our existing system. 

The quantum approach worked great on the sanitized test data. It completely failed when we added real operational constraints.

The problem with proof-of-concepts is they prove concepts, not operations. Academic success doesn't translate to warehouse floors or distribution centers.

Real supply chain optimization is actually coordinating workers, managing equipment failures, handling complaints, and adapting to constant changes. 

Quantum computers can't handle that complexity yet.

-THE CLASSICAL ADVANTAGE-

While everyone chases quantum breakthroughs, classical optimization keeps improving. 

Machine learning algorithms are getting smarter.
Computing power is getting cheaper.
Data integration is getting easier.

I've seen companies achieve significant optimization improvements just by upgrading their existing algorithms. 

Better demand forecasting.
Smarter inventory management.
More efficient routing. 

All using proven technology that works today.

Classical algorithms have advantages quantum can't match:

1/ They run on regular computers
2/ Integrate with existing systems
3/ Handle imperfect data
4/ Have decades of operational refinement 

As experts admit, quantum breakthrough claims are often overblown, especially for existing optimization algorithms.

Plus, classical optimization still has room to grow. 

Most companies aren't even using genetic algorithms or reinforcement learning. They're stuck with basic optimization tools from the 2000s.

Bottom line is fix your classical optimization first. Then worry about quantum.

-THE HARDWARE PROBLEM

Quantum computers need near-absolute zero temperatures.

They need electromagnetic isolation.
They need vibration control.
They break when you look at them wrong.

Current quantum systems have dozens of qubits. Real supply chain problems need hundreds or thousands of stable qubits. 

Error correction requires multiple physical qubits for each logical qubit, making the hardware requirements even worse.

You can't put a quantum computer in your data center. You can't integrate it with your existing IT infrastructure. 

You need specialized facilities and expert operators who understand quantum mechanics.

Classical computers keep getting faster and cheaper. Quantum computers keep getting more complex and expensive.

For supply chain applications, the hardware just isn't ready. 

Recent academic research running quantum algorithms on IBM hardware highlights the practical challenges and limitations of current systems.

THE TIMING REALITY

So when will quantum actually matter for supply chains?

The honest answer is we don't know.

Current hardware limitations suggest it won't be soon.

IBM's own analysis suggests commercial quantum applications are likely still a decade away, requiring significant advances in stability and predictability.

So here's what smart companies are doing now:

Focus on classical optimization
Maxing out current capabilities before chasing future ones. Most companies have huge untapped potential in their existing systems.

Build quantum literacy 
Training teams on quantum concepts. Monitoring the technology progress. Building relationships with quantum vendors. But not investing in hardware yet.

Ignore the hype 
Quantum computing will eventually transform many industries. Supply chain optimization isn't going to be one of the early wins.

-THE BOTTOM LINE-

Quantum computing represents incredible future potential.

But that future isn't here yet.

The hardware limitations are real.
The algorithm maturity isn't there.
The operational integration is impossible.

Meanwhile, classical optimization keeps delivering measurable results.

Better inventory management.
Smarter routing.
More accurate forecasting.

All using technology that works today.

The supply chain leaders of tomorrow are busy mastering current optimization capabilities while preparing for future quantum advances.

Not betting operational budgets on laboratory experiments.

Focus on what works. Prepare for what's coming. Don't confuse the two.

Here's to seeing around corners 🥂

~ Allison

P.S. Share this with a colleague getting pitched quantum supply chain solutions.

Want help separating supply chain technology hype from operational reality? Book a 30-minute consultation with me here.